The fourth advance estimates are here and the news is not one hoped for. The estimates cannot be termed as unexpected either as it only reaffirms the previous assessment. The Centre estimates that foodgrain production in 2015-2016 will be about 252.22 million tonnes (mt). India’s foodgrain output in 2015-16 (June-July) was the same, i.e., 252.02 mt.
As per the estimates made public, production of major commercial crops such as cotton, sugarcane and oilseeds will lower as compared to the last year.
At a glance, it may seem like the fourth advance estimates may just be reinforcing the third advance estimate which was announced in May. However, a closer look reveals that individual projections for most major crops such as rice, wheat and pulses have been tweaked.
Rice production as per the fourth advance estimates will be lower than the last year at 104.32 mt. Last year, India produced 105.48 mt of rice. Wheat production, on the other hand, is expected to be higher than last year at 93.50 mt in 2015-16. In the previous year, it was only 88.94 mt.
The projection for pulses in 2015-16 is 16.47 mt (17.15 mt).
On an overall, the production of cereals in the year 2015-16 is pegged at 235.76 mt. Definitely higher than 234.87 mt the year before.
The estimates for the output of jowar, maize, ragi, small millets and barley at 4.41 mt, 8.06 mt, 21.81 mt, 1.79 mt, 0.37 mt and 1.51 mt are lower than last year’s production.
Cotton production in 2015-16 will also be lower than last year at 301.47 lt. India’s cotton production in the previous year was 348.05 lt.
Oilseeds production also follows a similar trend. The output for 2015-16 is 253.04 but lower than last year’s 275.11 lt.